Rogers carries regression risk after a strong run, and facing a hot Red Sox lineup at Fenway increases the challenge. His upside remains real, but the risk profile makes him a fade candidate for some fantasy lineups, especially if the Red Sox offense heats up early.

Rogers has been Baltimore’s standout in 2025, posting a 1.43 ERA across 11 outings while guiding the Orioles to an 8-3 record in his appearances. He’s a crafty lefty whose ability to suppress opposing contact and minimize hits per outing makes him a high-upside fantasy option, especially against a Boston lineup that hits lefties relatively well but isn’t unbeatable.

Rogers has blossomed into a fantasy ace for Baltimore, delivering a microscopic ERA and WHIP with a heavy workload and two-start week potential, even facing tougher opponents; trust him in weekly lineups and treat him as a core two-start option when the matchups align.

Rogers sits with a 1.44 ERA, a formidable figure in this start against Seattle. He logged eight hits and six strikeouts in his last outing and looks to continue a stingy run that makes him a sneaky fantasy play even in a tough road matchup.

Rogers owns a min-ERA with length and a groundball-heavy profile, but peripherals flag regression: low hard contact, ultra-low BABIP, and xERA near 3.2-3.4. He’s pitching deep into games and delivering length, but expect some hit rate regression as the season unfolds. Ride the hot hand while it lasts, but stay alert for signs of reversion as hitters adjust.